Collaborative Research: College Choice and the Texas 10% Policy

Rand Corporation, Santa Monica CA

Investigators

Abstract

This research investigates college choice for Texas high school students who made their plans and decisions under the top 10 percent law (H.B.588) after affirmative action was judicially banned by the 1996 Hopwood decision [Hopwood v. University of Texas 78 F.3d 932, 944 (5th Cir.)]. Although most studies of the impact of percent plans focus on institutional diversification using administrative records, whether H.B. 588 increased application and matriculation probabilities of black and Hispanic students is unclear. This project will analyze racial and ethnic differences in college choice using a customized, statistically representative survey of Texas high school sophomores and seniors who made their college plans in the post-affirmative action, percent-plan regime. From the baseline surveys of approximately 14K seniors and 19K sophomores, random subsamples (N = 6K and 3K, respectively) will be followed over time--the seniors for at least six years post high school graduation and the sophomores at least through their senior year. The statistical analyses will address various facets of the college choice process (application, admission, and enrollment), including postponement decisions, and early withdrawal or transfer behavior. Special attention will be devoted to the influence of the top 10% law and class rank on college decision-making. Methodologically, the study design avoids the selection biases inherent in studies based on enrollees by portraying the full range of post-secondary school choices, including part-time enrollment and intermittent participation as well as work and military options. The project's broader impacts include: Practically, the analyses will address policy-relevant questions that currently are the subject of ideological debate, such as whether highly qualified students from the most competitive high schools are leaving the state because they rank below the guaranteed admission threshold, or whether students transfer high schools to improve their rank standing. The study will be of interest to researchers and policymakers interested in untangling "school effects" from other factors contributing to student outcomes. Finally, by building on a survey tailored to learn about how high school students perceive and respond to the top 10 percent law, the study will advance understanding of whether high ranked minority students, the intended beneficiaries of the percent plan legislation, take advantage of their college options to the same extent as nonminority students.