Collaborative Research: U.S.-Turkey Cooperative Research: Stochastic Modeling of Turbulent Flows for the Prediction of Lagrangian Trajectories in the Ocean

University Of Southern California, Los Angeles CA

Investigators

Abstract

0352448 Piterbarg Description: This project supports a cooperative research between Dr. Tamay Ozgokmen, School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Mimai, Miami, Florida, Dr. Leonid Piterbarg, Department of Mathematics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California and Dr. Mine Caglar, Department of Mathematics, Koc University, Istanbul, Turkey. The aim of this project is to bring together the expertise of interdisciplinary researchers to develop and implement mathematical methods for modeling turbulent flows in the ocean. The main goal of such modeling is to study the Lagrangian motion predictability with application to rescue and search operations in the sea, dispersion of pollutants and fish larvae, design of observing systems and navigation routes. The PIs will draw upon existing theory of stochastic flows, numerical modeling and Lagrangian studies of the ocean for establishing a united approach. The project aims to contribute novel Lagrangian prediction algorithms and model identification procedures from time/space observations. Submesoscale eddies are evident in the high-resolution velocity field data observed along Florida coast. Current ocean models are able to resolve meso-scale structures in the ocean, however small eddies cannot be resolved and should be parameterized. Scope: The potential impact of the project includes the enhancement of Lagrangian prediction studies by stochastic modeling of such eddy structures, and the capability to represent sub-grid turbulence in the ocean models. The methods employed will be statistical estimation of stochastic flow model parameters from ocean data, incorporation of stochastic modeling into numerical modeling of mesoscale oceanic processes, and construction of prediction algorithms that perform well in the presence of coherent structures. The expected scientific benefits of this project include: (i) understanding of turbulent flows through the collaboration of disciplines, namely physical oceanography, applied mathematics, probability and statistics; (ii) contribution to the theory of statistics of stochastic processes by a complex problem, namely the study of spatial and temporal data for fitting the parameters of a vector field; (iii) establishment of better Lagrangian stochastic models for oceanographic applications. The broader impacts of this project are: (i) collaboration among two US academic institutions will be supported; (ii) algorithms for prediction will be developed and disseminated through scientific publications; (iii) the results of the project will be publicized in international conferences of applied mathematics and probability, and physical oceanography; (iv) scientists from US and Turkey will develop future international collaborations for both research and also education such as exchange or recruitment of graduate students ; (v) the project contributes to understanding the environment and addresses a very practical safety problem.