Studies in Empirical Climate Prediction and Understanding

Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO

Investigators

Abstract

This research has several goals related to Atlantic tropical cyclone/hurricane climatology and projections: (1) Improvement of extended range seasonal Atlantic basin hurricane prediction; (2) Intraseasonal (month-to-month) prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity; (3) Development of probability forecasts for U.S. hurricane landfall; and (4) Early December and early April prediction of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Empirical/statistical prediction models will be further developed and applied. Broader Impacts: The PI's tropical cyclone forecasts are utilized by emergency managers, insurance agencies, the media and the general public. His group's forecasts turn the public attention towards the upcoming hurricane season and its potential dangers. In addition, several risk catastrophe models utilize its seasonal forecast as a factor in determining suggested insurance premiums. The development of a more skillful ENSO prediction will benefit societal planning on intraseasonal to interannual time scales.