Doctoral Dissertation Research: Applying Game Theory to River Restoration in Mosaic Landscapes

University Of California-Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz CA

Investigators

Abstract

This project develops and applies the analytical methods of game theory to the field of environmental restoration. It fully incorporates the complexity of strategic feedbacks between private landowners and resource users, restoration managers, and the spatial heterogeneity of mosaic landscapes in game-theoretic models. This approach layers the interactions and negotiations between restorationists and resource users to create a dynamic and more realistic model of natural-social systems associated with efforts to restore landscapes. It uses game-theoretic techniques to organize the actions and goals of restorationists and resource users to identify how and why social systems impact restoration activities, and how to better manage scarce restoration resources in light of landowner motivations and perspectives. The research program focuses on the complex social and natural interactions that influence the success of river restoration efforts. Specifically, it pursues the following questions: 1. What are the feedbacks from society that are elicited by river restoration activities? What triggers these feedbacks, and what are the bounds of these influences? 2. What strategies do restorationists and others involved in large-scale restoration projects currently employ? What are the resulting equilibria or paths of these strategic interactions? 3. How can these strategies be changed to improve payoffs within a non-cooperative framework? What additional gains are available within a cooperative framework? This research answers these questions for three types of river restoration: flow restoration, riparian corridor restoration, and landscape restoration. These types are considered at three different sites of river restoration in California. Flow restoration is considered via dam relicensing on the North Fork of the Feather River. Corridor restoration is considered for riparian reforestation of the upper Sacramento River. Landscape restoration is considered for the planned dam removal on Matilija Creek. The broader impacts of this research includes the development and application of game-theoretic models for both descriptive and prescriptive purposes in the field of environmental restoration, a field that until now has been dominated by qualitative social science methods and cost-benefit analysis. This work provides a greater understanding of negative impacts and feedbacks from restoration and conservation, and identification of policy options that could improve restoration and conservation efforts in conflicted social settings.