SBIR Phase II: Relational Bayesian Modeling for Electronic Commerce

Eshoppertools.Com Inc, Corvallis OR

Investigators

Abstract

This Small Business Innovation Research Phase II project will focus on scale-up and validation of the company's relational model discovery technology, with specific application focus on web-visitor behavior modeling. In Phase I research the company developed a modeling paradigm based a synthetic variable language for relational Bayesian modeling. Its synthetic variable language is the first comprehensive effort to develop a principled way to represent, discover, and perform probabilistic inference with mixed intra-table, cross-table, and multi-table relational features. This capability provides the basis for construction of comprehensive, integrated models of relational data. Models constructed capture the rich detail of web visitor behavior and can be used to make inferences about web visitor intent (e.g., whether or not a purchase in planned) in real- time. These results are not obtainable by any other modeling technology. The technical objectives for the Phase II project are to: (1) develop a complete language to establish solutions to outstanding issues in our synthetic variable capability, (2) engineer the infrastructure needed for commercial deployment, (3) construct deployable models of web visitor behavior to identify opportunities for intervention, and (4) conduct field-trials of model-based interventions to establish the business value of our approach. A paradox of modern society is that we possess so little knowledge relative to the amount of data we collect and store. E-commerce provides a paradigmatic example of this paradox. E-Commerce platforms collect unprecedented amounts of information about customer interactions, yet today's E-commerce applications do not provide the service expected by customers or the performance demanded by online retailers. Online retailers are demanding increasingly sophisticated marketing and merchandising technologies. The proposed product will empower online merchants and service providers by enabling efficient and integrated understanding of online consumer behavior. The proposed product will bring in a new class of customer centric (instead of page-centric) web-based interactions that will contribute to the evolution of the World Wide Web as a communication medium. The company's technology also applies to offline scientific analysis as a method for hypothesis generation in complex relational data as in the E-commerce domain. This technology enables scientists to make better use of the data at their disposal.