Variability of the Climate System: Understanding Observed Low Frequency Variability of SST in the North Atlantic

George Mason University, Fairfax VA

Investigators

Abstract

This project will investigate the causes for low frequency variability of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature in the latter half of the 20th century by employing a novel global climate modeling approach. The research will set up and test a framework that makes the diagnosis of observed variability possible for the first time in a coupled global climate modeling context. The model is to be forced by "observed weather noise" surface fluxes which are derived by removing an estimate of the forced atmospheric response from the total surface fluxes, as represented by the reanalysis produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The coupled model will utilize the interactive ensemble configuration to filter out the "weather noise" from the fluxes generated by the atmosphere and forcing the ocean, while fully simulating the coupled atmosphere-ocean feedbacks. Broader impacts: While the focus of this work is confined to the region of the North Atlantic, the technique could be allied to other regions and used to address a range of science questions. The project will also educate future climate scientists in the use of coupled general circulation models for studying climate.