Tropical Atlantic Variability and Its Predictability Using the Community Climate System Model

Texas A&M Research Foundation, College Station TX

Investigators

Abstract

This project will explore atmosphere-ocean variability in the tropical Atlantic by performing a series of simulations and ensemble forecast experiments using version two of the community climate system model, coupled to ocean models ranging from simple mixed-layer to ocean global climate model complexity. The aim of this approach is to determine the roles of various (upper) ocean processes that are currently not well understood or well represented in climate modeling and prediction systems: Two processes in particular are the contributions to tropical Atlantic variability by the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature feedback and equatorial air-sea interactions, and predictability of the meridional and zonal sea surface temperature modes, with emphasis on the oceanic dynamics and meridional heat transport. An anomaly coupling approach is being adopted to compensate for the effects of any systematic bias in the models. Broader Impacts: Results of this research are expected to provide useful information on the potential cause of the large systematic biases in version two of the community climate system model, and other coupled models in the tropical Atlantic, helping to guide future model improvements. One graduate student will be supported by this project.