Numerical Simulation and Analysis of Severe Storms and Mesoscale Convective Systems

Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO

Investigators

Abstract

Due to potential large economic impact as well as public safety issues, the study of atmospheric mesoscale convective systems (MCS) is a high priority topic of research. Under this award, the Principal Investigator will pursue several research tasks that involve meteorological phenomena associated with MCSs and other convective storms: o Perform a detailed observational analysis of the environment in which MCSs initiate and develop with a focus on predictability. o Perform simulations to investigate the sensitivity of MCS development to initial convective ensemble configuration in numerical models. o Examine the impacts of forward flank downdraft and rear flank downdraft cold-pool variability on mesocyclones and near-surface tornado-like vorticity in simulated supercell tornado-producing storms. o Simulate and diagnosis, using airborne Doppler radar, derecho cases (high straight line winds) observed in the Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment (BAMEX). This research will contribute to fundamental understanding of the behavior and evolution of severe thunderstorms and MCSs. The methodological approach involves a combination of numerical simulations and diagnostic studies. Successful completion of this research will lead to better understanding which may result in better short range prediction of weather phenomena associated with severe storms and MCSs, including tornadoes, heavy rainfall, and severe winds.