Emergency Preparedness Planning and On-Line Evacuation of Large Buildings

University Of Maryland, College Park, College Park MD

Investigators

Abstract

The primary focus of this research activity is the development of the conceptual framework and methodological steps for determining optimal and robust tactical and operational strategies for rapidly evacuating a large burning building or a building that has come under attack by enemy or natural catastrophe. Both emergency preparedness planning and real-time execution are addressed. Tactical preparedness concerns involve the selection of carefully planned a priori evacuation paths that consider the inherent dynamic and uncertain nature of conditions that exist in emergency situations requiring evacuation. Operational concerns address the on-line determination of evacuation paths that are updated in real-time as actual conditions of the building structures and circulation systems (i.e. means of egress) are revealed and predictions related to risk of continued failure concerning the structural members and portions of the circulation systems are updated. The need for modeling the dynamic and uncertain nature of conditions in emergency evacuation stems from the fact that such events are often characterized by dangers that strengthen and spread over time. These circumstances induce the possibility that successful egress may be inhibited by partial or complete failure of key escape paths. Moreover, we cannot know how the situation will progress with certainty even if the exact location and type of event that initiated the need for the evacuation is known. Existing methodologies for determining optimal evacuation paths do not consider this uncertainty and the dynamically varying conditions inherent in post-blast, fire or other situations requiring emergency evacuation. Instructions that do not consider the evolution of damage over time and threats of probable additional destruction and deterioration can result in suboptimal decisions that can lead to unnecessary imposed risk and unnecessary lost lives. The algorithmic developments undertaken in this research effort will explicitly consider these characteristics in determination of the evacuation path strategies, resulting in robust evacuation plans with lower probability of failure than paths determined otherwise. Teaching, training and learning will be enhanced through the development of real-world case studies that will be studied in the classroom and through a comprehensive graduate course related to risk analyses and emergency management. Evacuation plans resulting from the proposed research activities will enable faster and more efficient evacuation of a building in the event of military attack, fire, natural disaster, discovery of a hazardous material or biological agent, or other circumstances warranting quick escape. This will result in reduction in: the number of injured persons, trapped evacuees, or lost lives. The methodologies developed in this research effort will also be pertinent for evaluating existing evacuation plans and for identifying potentially high-risk circumstances. These results will impact many other functional areas as well, including, evacuation of a geographical region due to military attack, human-made accident, or natural disaster, such as an accident involving a nuclear power plant or escape of hazardous chemicals, collapse of a structure such as dam walls, hurricane, earthquake, flooding, volcanic eruption, or tsunami.