A Pilot Study: Analyzing the Differential Undercount of Children and the Poor in the US Census

Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA

Investigators

Abstract

The is a pilot project to assess the feasibility of developing a strategy for improving our understanding of undercounting children by the U.S. Census Bureau and illustrating the impact that differential undercount of children according to their income category may have on national estimates of child poverty. Currently, estimates of the number of children and their poverty status are derived solely from the Census and census-based products (e.g., the Current Population Survey (CPS), the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP)), although vital statistics and administrative data sources also provide information on the number and the income distribution of children. However, there appear to be significant discrepancies between data sources on the number of children and children's well-being. This research represents a beginning effort to try to measure and reconcile these discrepancies. Both theoretical and practical considerations motivate this work. Developing a deep and longitudinal understanding of the child undercount has the potential to inform the degree to which the social and economic recognition of a group has changed over time and can be used to evaluate competing theories about the causes and perpetuation of poverty. The practical value of the project and its broader impacts lie in the utility to social science researchers and policymakers of assessing child undercounts and in developing strategies for more accurately counting children in the U.S., especially poor children. The research also aims to improve social science's tools for assessing of the well-being of American children. This award is jointly supported by the Division of Mathematical Sciences and the Directorate for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences as part of the Mathematical Sciences Priority Area.