Risk-Based Methodological Framework for Scenario Tracking and Intelligence Collection and Analysis for Terrorism

University Of Virginia Main Campus, Charlottesville VA

Investigators

Abstract

Disruption of a terrorist attack depends on having information facilitating the identification and location of those involved in supporting, planning, and carrying out the attack. Such information arises from myriad sources such as human or instrument surveillance by intelligence or law enforcement agencies, a variety of databases and documents concerning transactions, and tips from a wide range of occasional observers. Given the enormous amount of information available, a method is needed to cull and analyze only the data relevant to the task, confirm its validity and eliminate the rest. This method must help to link separately obtained information about potential attackers, targets and methods of attack in a fashion that helps an analyst team to discover an otherwise unknown attack in preparation. This proposal has the major premise that in planning, supporting, and carrying out a terrorist plot, those involved will conduct a series of related activities for which there may be some observables and other acquirable evidence. Those activities taken together constitute a threat scenario. Information consistent with a realistic threat scenario may be useful in thwarting an impending attack. Thus, the methodology requires a comprehensive set of realistic threat scenarios that would form a framework for collection and analysis of information. It also requires a process for judging the validity and usefulness of such information. The key questions for the proposed research are: how to produce a comprehensive set of threat scenarios; how to winnow that to the set of most likely scenarios; what supplementary intelligence is worth pursuing; how to judge the relevance of available information; and how to validate and analyze the information. A key element in the research is the application of Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM). HHM is a methodology developed to support risk analysis. It provides a means for a team of analysts to evaluate a risky situation from a multitude of perspectives. In this research effort, HHM is used to identify target attributes that can guide the selection of a method of attack and target related people (e.g., employees at the targeted location) that can possibly contribute to an attack. This information can be used to start establishing other attack related linkages between methods, people and targets. If these attack related linkages are unusual, they can provide a sound basis for stimulating more concentrated efforts to intercept the potential attack. HHM requires a multi-dimensional evaluation of target vulnerabilities that provide attackers with the opportunity to be successful. The results of this project should provide useful insights about how to anticipate and more readily discover terrorist attacks in the planning phase. In addition the research will explore approaches for implementing its results into existing information system efforts related to countering terrorism.