Dynamics of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

University Of Hawaii, Honolulu

Investigators

Abstract

This project continues prior research to elucidate mechanisms responsible for the tropical intraseasonal oscillation, also known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Successful dynamical forecasts of this oscillation may bridge the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal climate prediction. This study will examine the underlying physics controlling the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation and attempt to understanding its relationship to air-sea interactions and summer mean precipitation. Attention will also be given to explaining why the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean is a preferred region for amplification of the intraseasonal oscillation. Both diagnostic and modeling studies are supplemented by long-term NCEP reanalysis data and high-resolution satellite data; these will be used to validate the multi-model ensemble simulations. The subject of the research is considered important by the community, and may lead to better medium-range forecasts and better forecasts of El Nino, while making a positive impact on poor countries which would benefit greatly from improved medium-range to seasonal forecasts. Based on the P.I.'s prolific publishing history, it is expected that the results of this research will be disseminated via meetings and publications in internationally-recognized scientific journals.