Collaborative Research: Complex Controls on the Distribution of Lightning Characteristics and Property Damage in an Urbanized Region

Northern Illinois University, Dekalb IL

Investigators

Abstract

Lightning property damage is often less spectacular and more dispersed in time than other weather phenomena such as hurricanes or tornadoes. Consequently, lightning has been under recognized in its potential to generate large economic losses. Recent studies have found that heat generated from large urban areas may alter the local distribution of lightning strikes. However, little is known about the characteristics of this lightning and how surface properties and land-use trends influence its damage potential. Geographic studies of lightning property damage conducted to date cast lightning risk as linear and assume only one causal factor. For example, trends in lightning property damage can be attributed to background thunderstorm regime, a control imposed by the physical environment. Other studies emphasize that these loss trends are caused by an increasing societal sensitivity to thunderstorms. The research in this project is unique in that the researchers simultaneously consider the physical environment and the societal template as interacting causal agents. The investigators will employ multivariate techniques, cartographic visualization, and remotely-sensed meteorological data in a geographic information systems framework to extend the knowledge of urban lightning hazards, a relatively undocumented environmental aspect of urban sprawl. The study region, Atlanta, Georgia, provides an ideal setting to investigate how these interactions shape lightning hazards. Recent studies have found that heat from downtown Atlanta can trigger thunderstorms in outlying counties. The investigators will employ lightning strike data, insurance claims summaries, and spatial physiographic data to map lightning characteristics and to test hypotheses about the underlying controls of associated property damage. The investigators will also examine how the structure, location, and time of day of these thunderstorms correspond to lightning production. Urban weather hazards have recently been identified by the U.S. Weather Research Program as a critically important area of research in consideration of the large economic liabilities embedded within densely-populated regions. By articulating the subtleties of lightning hazards, the investigators provide detail as to how to redistribute insurance risks and allocate emergency service resources in urbanized landscapes. Given predicted increases in lightning frequency under global warming, a baseline assessment of urban lightning hazards will be a valuable source of information for future investigations. By articulating the relationships among urban thunderstorm structure, distribution, and lightning production, contributions will also be made to the field of urban thunderstorm climatology. Finally, this investigation will extend the conceptual and methodological framework through which geographers study the complex interplay between human and natural systems.