WCR: Impact of Land-use Changes and/or Radiative Forcing on Water Availability and the Pathways and Interactions of the Global and Regional Water Cycles

University Of Alaska Fairbanks Campus, Fairbanks AK

Investigators

Abstract

The project will investigate the impact of global climate change on future water availability. The research is motivated, in part, by water management issues, e.g., the potential of substituted crops/vegetation in mitigating regional hydrologic change. The NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) will be used to investigate the interactions between radiative and hydrologic processes. The impact of different radiative forcing due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide increases and land-use change scenarios on the water cycle and regional water availability will be modeled. Dr. Molders will integrate the state-of-the-art CCSM model for several decades, each time with different land-use and radiative forcing configurations, and extract answers from careful analysis of the model runs. In addition to providing insights into sustainability issues, Dr. Molders' analysis will provide a rather unique assessment of the hydrologic potential of this national modeling resource. The project findings will lead to improved characterization of the regional impacts of global climate change over Alaska. Given the fragility of the Alaskan ecosystem, the research is societally relevant. The project is supported as part of NSF's Water Cycle Research effort