WCR: Organized Convective Precipitation Over the U.S. Continent

University Corporation For Atmospheric Res, Boulder CO

Investigators

Abstract

This Water Cycle Research (WCR) project will investigate the causes and prediction of summer rainfall variability over the continents. The focus is on coherent patterns of rainfall, which mainly result from organized convection and lower boundary forcing. Dr. Moncrieff and colleagues, Drs. Carbone and Davis (also from NCAR), will identify and quantify the predictable components of summertime precipitation, and develop numerical techniques for predicting both extreme and ordinary events. The research will rely on a unique six-year record (1996-2002) of radar rainfall observations over the continental United States. This data set will be analyzed and simulated using a cloud-system resolving model. The model can explicitly deal with the parameterization challenges arising from the organization and scale-separation in convective precipitation. The project will improve the modeling and prediction of the coherent rainfall features seen over continental United States during the summer season. The project's broader impacts include the socio-economic benefits derived from better hydroclimate forecasts and improved water resource management.