Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Waves and Their Interactions

Pennsylvania State Univ University Park, University Park PA

Investigators

Abstract

The project will investigate the structure, behavior, and interactions of the waves in the tropical atmosphere, and their impact on convection and rainfall. An improved understanding of wave excitation and governing mechanisms can produce more accurate predictions of hydroclimate variability. Dr. Frank (Penn State) will undertake a detailed analysis of tropical waves present in satellite data and global reanalysis fields. He will focus on wave interactions with orography and the seasonally and zonally varying climatological basic state, in an effort to understand the generation of rainfall variability. Dr. Frank will perform a comprehensive analysis of the satellite-derived, 10-year long precipitable water and outgoing longwave radiation data sets, which provide unique fingerprints of planetary-scale waves in the tropics. Predictability of wave activity on the 5-50 day timescale will also be investigated, using statistical techniques. The diagnostic research will advance understanding of the structure and mechanisms of tropical wave activity, and lead to improvements in hydroclimate predictions.