CAREER: Improved Hydrologic Drought Forecasting Using Climate Information

University Of Nevada Las Vegas, Las Vegas NV

Investigators

Abstract

Hydrologic droughts have economic, environmental, and social implications that can be mitigated if advanced warning is provided. Recent research has shown that global oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns are linked to hydrologic extremes; however, this knowledge has not been effectively translated into improved hydrologic drought forecasts. This action supports a CAREER-project that addresses two key research needs identified by the National Research Council (NRC, 2001a, 2001b): (1) to develop a better understanding of changes in hydrologic patterns as related to climate variability; and (2) to develop improved methods to forecast hydrologic droughts several months in advance. The research objectives are to (1) develop a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between climate variability and hydrologic drought, (2) determine the appropriate uses of remote sensing data for predicting hydrologic drought, (3) develop a framework for integrating climate and remote sensing information into long-range hydrologic drought forecasting, and (4) apply the long-range hydrologic forecast model to river basins in the southwest United States. The different modes of climate variability will be identified based on climate indices and global sea surface temperatures. The relationship between hydrologic drought and climate variability will be investigated using statistical procedures, and a long-range hydrologic forecast model will be developed and applied to the Colorado River Basin. Research and education are integrated through service learning that infuses the community service experience with student learning. The educational goals are to (1) implement service learning in the curriculum, (2) develop improved assessment skills, and (3) develop educational tools for water resources of the Colorado River. Service-learning activities will include freshman-engineering students working with K-12 students, and upper division undergraduate and graduate students working with local organizations to meet water resource needs in the community. The information obtained for the Colorado River will be developed into an educational tool that is accessible to the general public and students at all levels. The intellectual merit and new contributions are a comprehensive understanding of how hydrologic drought is influenced by other short- and long- term climate variability, a better understanding of how remote sensing data can be used to improve hydrologic drought forecasts, and the development of a tool that decision makers and the public can use to determine water resource allocation. The broader impacts include improved drought planning, which has direct economic and societal benefits, a better understanding by students of their role in the community through service learning, and an increased public awareness of the drought issues in the Colorado River Basin.