WCR: Designing a Pilot Study for Floods in the Walnut River Basin, KS, Using a Scaling Framework

University Of Colorado At Boulder, Boulder CO

Investigators

Abstract

0233676 Gupta This proposal addresses the long-standing, fundamental problem of unifying the spatial statistics of floods with its physics. We propose to address this problem within a newly developing statistical scaling framework. Statistical scaling is an emergent property of a complex physical system, which is not built into the physical equations a-priori. Scaling provides a new mathematical framework to link emipirical observations with numerical or analytical solutions of physical processes. Our objective is to design a pilot study of floods in the Walnut River basin, KS, using the scaling framework. Special emphasis will be given to the role of scaling in space-time variable rainfall and spatially variable channel network structures in determining the scaling parameters of peak flows. This proposed pilot study is also a first step to conduct a large-scale cooperative field experiment in the Walnut River basin in Kansas. We propose to test the scaling framework for peak streamflows using existing observations from the Walnut Gulch basin, AZ, and the Goodwin Creek basin, MS. Tests will also be carried out using GIS-based numerical simulations for these two basins. In addition, we will simulate peak flows in the Walnut River basin, KS, which is a site for cooperative atmospheric surface exchange studies (CASES). From the simulation results, we will design a pilot study for strategically gauging the basin to test peak flow scaling. The scaling framework unifies spatial flood statistics with its physics, and thereby addresses a longstanding fundamental open problem in hydrologic sciences and engineering. The body of new knowledge under scaling provides the scientific foundations for solving the long-standing applied problem of prediction of floods and low flows from ungauged and poorly gauged basins. The scaling framework can be used to detect the effects of man-made changes on landscape and changes in climate on floods on a global basis. This is a cooperative interdisciplinary proposal involving scientists and engineers from the University of Colorado, Boulder, the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Iowa.