Synthesis of Antarctic Temperature Observations and Model Output

University Of Illinois At Urbana-Champaign, Urbana IL

Investigators

Abstract

The primary goal of this project is to make a realistic estimate of antarctic climate change through a quantitative trend assessment of observed surface temperatures in Antarctica. While antarctic temperature changes have potentially major consequences for the global system, the highly heterogeneous network of surface stations in Antarctica has limited quantitative studies and has led to a confusing mix of results reported to the public. The first objective of the proposed project is an Antarctic temperature trend assessment that (1) makes optimum use of the available information, (2) is technically justified by demonstrable properties of the data, and (3) can be clearly conveyed to nonscientists. The trends will be interpolated spatially in accordance with the correlation length scales deduced from data obtained by automated weather stations and conventional stations. The spatial, seasonal, and temporal sensitivities of the trends will be thoroughly documented and an alternative approach to Antarctic-wide trend determinations, based on empirical orthogonal function reconstructions of monthly temperature anomaly fields will be explored. A second objective is the synthesis of climate model simulations of Antarctic changes against which recent and ongoing variations of Antarctic climate can be compared. This synthesis will draw upon the output of five state-of-the-art global models, all forced by the same moderate scenario of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations. A web-based archive, suitable for use by non-scientists, will contain spatial and seasonal depictions of projected changes of Antarctic temperature, precipitation, pressure and sea ice in several time slices of the 20th and 21st centuries. ***