River discharge from the Russian Federation: An understanding of contemporary trends and their placement in a Holocene context

University Of California-Los Angeles, Los Angeles CA

Investigators

Abstract

The proposed research seeks to identify the causes for increased discharge from Russian rivers to the Arctic Ocean over the past 65 years. The research will then attempt to place these trends into a longer-term (century to millennial time scale) context. The first objective will be approached through quantitative analyses of daily discharge records from major Russian rivers over the past century, starting with a "data rescue" of paper-format records. Securing the second objective will require modeling of paleo-discharge using publicly available tree ring data from well-distributed sites across Arctic Russia. The research will result in a substantially improved understanding of spatial and temporate runoff patterns across the world's largest Arctic landmass, and a historical context by which to evaluate contemporary trends. This understanding will help to answer questions about recent discharge increases, namely, "are they unprecedented?", "where is the water coming from?", and "what physical processes drive them?".