BE/CNH: Complexity Across Boundaries: Coupled Human and Natural Systems in the Yellowstone Northern Elk Winter Range

Idaho State University, Pocatello ID

Investigators

Abstract

A primary issue in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem is the ecology of the northern elk herd winter range (NEWR), where elk and wolves cross the Yellowstone National Park boundary into areas managed as "natural" and "altered" systems. Land management inside the park and development of the winter range outside park boundaries suggests that wildlife management plays out on a landscape mosaic dominated by human decisions, values, and economic considerations. The main objectives of this research project are to gain a better understanding of the relationships between ecosystem dynamics and human decision-making and to use this understanding to construct an ecosystem model that facilitates exploration of plausible future scenarios in a manner that captures the uncertainty associated with complex systems. An investigative team drawn from multiple disciplines and from five different states will develop spatially explicit elk, wolf, and vegetation submodels and will integrate these models to assess the impacts of climate variability, land-use decisions, and economic valuation on the environment under changing conditions. The elk submodel will extend state-of-the-science energetics-based models to include information on changing landscapes and climate/snow conditions that affect winter feeding habits. The investigators will develop predator components that mimic the impacts of the recent wolf reintroduction in Yellowstone. The snow/climate submodel will be developed to produce snow depth and snow condition maps based on local and large-scale climate parameters and field measurements. Vegetation submodels will focus on willows and aspen, plants that often are browsed heavily by elk. The investigators will address the impacts of changing groundwater resources on these species to better understand their resilience to the combined impacts of elk browse and groundwater stress. Because elk, vegetation, and other factors have become measures by which humans place values on the landscape that influence decisions, stakeholder groups will be studied and interviewed to assure that the resulting models have relevance in the socio-political context of the NEWR. This is particularly important, because stakeholders have a long history of conflict regarding land-use decisions. This project will develop a land-use history, define key stakeholder-identified variables, and use probability-based land-use models. Knowledge derived from stakeholder studies will be integrated into the natural system models as coefficients of habitat availability and quality; as parameters on barriers, sources and sinks; as qualitative and categorical constraints on modeled variables and relationships; and as feedback loops between the human and natural system. The natural and human system submodels will be combined within the context of a single multi-agent system that can model complex adaptive systems. The multi-agent system-based model will be used to simulate alternative states that result from assumptions about decisions, natural conditions, and ecosystem processes. The results will demonstrate the complex nature of a highly integrated ecosystem and the role that climate, human decisions, and natural variability play in producing ecosystem change and/or stability. This research will merge models of ecosystems and human decision-making. A primary focus is to build robust ecosystem models that can be integrated with a human system model based on land use decisions and valuation of ecosystem services. By interacting with NEWR stakeholders and by developing key linkages within natural and human systems, this project will evaluate existing and potential land-use strategies and alternative policy options. The models will demonstrate the complex interactions that exist within this changing landscape by simulating climate factors, policy decisions, and natural change in the vegetation. Models will be extended to simulate potential future conditions based on sound scientific principles, past trends in human decision making, and possible future human decisions. Scenarios may be used to help build consensus and diminish conflict in the NEWR before decisions are made. The NEWR is a critical component of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, and understanding the complexity associated with human and natural system dynamics will help sustain the area for future generations. This project will serve as a model for protected areas worldwide that are undergoing similar boundary conflicts. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2002 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.