Workshop on the development of a Tsunami Scenario Simulation Program

University Of Washington, Seattle WA

Investigators

Abstract

0237039, Harry Yeh, University of Washington "Workshop on the development of a Tsunami Scenario Simulation Program" This action is to provide support for a workshop, be held in September 2002 in Seattle, WA, to discuss the development of a collaborative research plan for comprehensive and integrated scenario simulations for tsunami hazard mitigation. The simulations include tsunami generation, propagation, runup/rundown motion, warning transmission to the general public in the affected areas, evacuation and rescue simulations, human behavior simulations, and short-term and long-term societal and environmental impact simulations. The goal of the scenario simulation exercises is to give researchers an awareness and experience of all aspects of tsunami science and hazards planning. In setting up and running the simulations, and in evaluating the results, critical problems will be identified for improvement in each specialized area and in the interaction between disciplines. The exercises will provide a valuable common background from which to forge and maintain coherence in the broadly distributed, multi-disciplinary tsunami hazard mitigation community. In addition, the integrated, highly visual character of the simulations will be of great value for K-12 education on tsunami hazards, and for general public information. The simulation exercises will include physical models, numerical models, informatics (the study of the structure, behavior, and interactions of both natural and artificial computational systems), human behavior models, communication simulations, and other exercises that will integrate the tsunami source with its eventual effects on communities and the environment. This activity is by nature a multi-university, multi-community, and multi-disciplinary effort. The objective is not to determine specific tsunami mitigation measures for specific coastal towns and cities. Instead, the objective is to set up a fully integrated scenario for a hypothetical situation (which could be based on an existing real coastal community) to be investigated by researchers from a wide variety of disciplines, working to solve a common problem from different viewpoints. The outcome will provide the participants, sponsors, and coastal communities with valuable experience, lessons learned from the model event, and will enhance and maintain further research collaboration for tsunami hazard reduction. Involvement in the scenario simulation, and work on the common problem, will lead each researcher to interact closely with researchers in other specialized areas. The researchers will obtain a broader picture for tsunami research, and identify critical problems and linkages to be examined for improvement. The outcome from of the workshop will be a comprehensive research plan for the earthquake engineering and hazards planning communities, in particular for those investigators who deal with tsunami hazard prediction and mitigation.