Repeated Game Models of Endogenous Ethnic Tensions

University Of Mississippi, University MS

Investigators

Abstract

Many theories of ethnic tensions are "backward looking" in the sense that they focus on how past experiences shape current attitudes. They therefore depict ethnic relations as relatively static and unchanging. By contrast, repeated game models of interpersonal relations are forward looking. In these models, a person's actions today are influenced by how she expects others will respond to those actions in the future. This project develops a theoretical model of racial or ethnic tensions in a forward-looking repeated game framework. If a community is partially segregated, then relationships will be more frequently repeated within groups than across groups. People may therefore cooperate more with members of their own group than with members of other groups. That is, people may trust members of other groups less than members of their own group. We interpret this as a form of ethnic tension. In this context, this study shows that everyone may prefer integration to partial segregation, in spite of these ethnic tensions. This is because the benefits from increased cooperation across groups may outweigh the cost of shifting from cooperative own-group interactions to less cooperative cross-group interactions. In addition, the study shows that minorities tend to suffer more from ethnic tensions than non-minorities. On the other hand, the study shows that an individual may not be able to improve her cross-ethnic relationships unless she is able to commit herself to interact more frequently with members of other ethnic groups in the future. It follows that individuals may need to use commitment mechanisms, such as residential proximity, a common employer, or marriage, to facilitate cooperation with members of other groups. Forward looking models of ethnic tensions are important because they suggest that ethnic relations can be very responsive to changing conditions. This can be a bad thing since, for example, ethnic demagogues may be able to break down trust across ethnic lines. Such a breakdown of trust can become self-fulfilling, as both sides become pessimistic about their future relationships, and so, treat each other worse today. On the other hand, the forward looking nature of ethnic relations can be a good thing since, for example, a community that was previously sharply divided along ethnic lines can quickly become less divided under favorable social and political conditions. If these favorable conditions make people more optimistic about their future cross-ethnic relationships, then they will be more careful to cultivate those relationships today. Models of ethnic tensions among forward-looking agents are therefore important because they highlight important risks and opportunities in improving ethnic relations. These models may also suggest new ways to help overcome these ethnic tensions.