BE/CNH: Conference on Robustness of Coupled Natural and Human Systems

University Of Arizona, Tucson AZ

Investigators

Abstract

Coupled natural and human systems may be viewed mathematically as dynamical systems (systems of differential or difference equations) in which humans are involved either as parts of the system or by influencing some processes, whether intentionally or not. Alternatively they may be considered as complex systems -- collections of agents engaged in rule-governed behavior. In either case, robustness refers to the stability and resistance to perturbation of such dynamical or complex systems as they evolve in state space. A dynamical system is said to be structurally stable if reasonably small perturbations to the system result in a new dynamical system with the same qualitative dynamics. The concept of robustness raises questions that lie outside the purview of stability theory, such as the interplay of system organization and system dynamics. Processes like adaptation and positive feedback can increase the robustness of living systems and coupled natural and human systems, but the linkage between efficiency and robustness may be an inverse one in which optimal efficiency is at the expense of robustness in the face of changing environmental conditions. In some cases, robustness may be an emergent property of evolved systems, or it may be possible to engineer systems to enhance their robustness. To address these issues, this award will sponsor a conference to be held at the Santa Fe Institute in the Spring of 2003. The conference will bring together scientists from a range of disciplines, including physics, mathematics, computer science, earth and climate science, ecology, anthropology and archaeology, to discuss theoretical research and case studies, with emphasis being placed on comparative discussion of the case studies. Papers will be circulated in advance and presented in a single forum attended by all conference participants. Results of the conference are expected to be published The robustness of coupled natural and human systems has become a matter of increasing concern as the modern industrial system's impact on the natural systems of the planet becomes more and more apparent and issues of sustainability become paramount. This conference will contribute to explorations of robustness in coupled natural and human systems at scales ranging from planetary (climate) and macroscales through the mesoscale of sociocultural systems to the microscopic scale of disease microevolution. Participants will explore the association of different spatial scale with varying temporal scales, and they will help answer a number of critical questions, including whether robustness is best assessed by analysis of existing data or through simulation modeling, how engineered systems compare to complex adaptive systems in terms of robustness and/or a calculus of costs and benefits, and under what circumstances robust systems are most likely to develop. Through this conference, participants and other scholars will develop new insights into and new approaches for investigating robustness in coupled natural and human systems. Broader impacts of this project include the expansion of an interdisciplinary network of scientists to explore this important topic in a collaborative framework. The results of their discussions and subsequent collaborative activities could ultimately yield many practical benefits for land and resource managers as well as others who have responsibilities associated with maintaining environmental quality. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2002 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.