Term Limits in the State Legislatures: Analysis of a 50-State Survey and Collateral Data

University Of Rochester, Rochester NY

Investigators

Abstract

Term limits are the most significant innovation in state legislatures since the legislative modernization movement of the 1960s and 1970s. Currently, term limits have taken effect in 11 states; they will go into effect in seven more between 2002 and 2008. By now, hundreds of legislators have been prevented from running for re-election. New legislators, in turn, will be forced from office after as few as six years. Legislative organization has also been affected, as term limited legislatures can no longer rely heavily on seniority to pick their leaders. Because term limits are new, there is little evidence about their effects. There has been one comprehensive, 50-state study, but it was carried out in 1995, before any legislators were actually turned out of office. Other studies have now begun to appear, but they have typically been based on one or two legislatures. Now that term limits are in effect in 11 states, with others shortly joining the list, the effects can be gauged more fully. This project draws on a new, 50-state survey of legislators along with election data and demographic data about the legislators. It examines electoral effects (e.g., competition), influence patterns (e.g., executive-legislative relations), and procedural effects (e.g., constituent service). The methodology includes over-time comparisons (using the earlier survey as a base) as well as comparisons between term limited and non-term limited states. Multivariate statistical methods allow the investigators to control for possible confounding factors, including characteristics of the legislators themselves, of states and chambers, and of legislative districts. The research is part of a cooperative venture between academic political scientists and the National Conference of State Legislatures, the Council of State Governments, and the State Legislative Leaders Foundation. Through this cooperation, it is anticipated that there will be considerable feedback to the legislatures. In particular, team members will identify and evaluate ways in which various states have adapted to term limits and disseminate this information to all term limited states. Non-term limited states will also benefit from learning about and possibly adopting newly implemented training, professional development, and procedural changes.