Collaborative Research: Patterns and Processes of Landscape Change in the Brazilian Amazon: A Longitudinal, Comparative Analysis of Smallholder Land Use Decision-Making

Michigan State University, East Lansing MI

Investigators

Abstract

Land use decisions by smallholders are an important influence on landscape change in the Brazilian Amazon and are a major cause of forest clearance. This research project will examine the factors that influence smallholder land use decisions to enable a fuller understanding of the patterns and processes of landscape change underway in this area. The 27-month project will begin with two follow-up surveys for previous studies to provide a systematic, longitudinal and comparative analysis of changing patterns of household land use in areas undergoing intensive deforestation pressures. These studies will be a 10-year follow-up survey of 240 rural households in Rondonia and a 5-year follow-up survey of 261 rural households in Para. The panel data collected will then be used to specify a dynamic behavioral model of landscape change. Using GIS software, this predictive model will be used to simulate the landscape evolution arising from the aggregated impacts of individual household land use decisions. The model will be validated using remote sensing data, and adapted into a visualization program to aid researchers and policy-makers in understanding the landscape impacts of different factors affecting smallholder land use decisions. Ultimately the research will explore new theoretical ground at the nexus of neoclassical economic, demographic, and political ecology interpretations of landscape change. Rising rates of tropical deforestation in the Amazon region, and elsewhere, raise concerns about loss of biological, genetic, and cultural diversity, increasing carbon dioxide emissions and global climate changes, and a host of regional impacts from soil erosion and river contamination to disruptions in local meteorological regimes. Between 30% and 50% of the forest clearing in the Amazon is caused by small-scale commercial shifting cultivators and ranchers. Although such "smallholders" have been the subject of considerable field research, surprisingly little is known about the dynamics of their farming systems and land use decision-making. With a few exceptions, most of this research has focused on one-time case study "snap-shots", in which long-term patterns are inferred from cross-sectional data. This project will provide a genuine longitudinal analysis of data drawn from two distant and different settlement frontiers in the Amazon, capturing the range of diverse factors influencing the process of landscape change in this imperiled rainforest region.