GOALI: Robust Product Design Selection under Uncertainty and for Competitive Advantage

University Of Maryland, College Park, College Park MD

Investigators

Abstract

The objective of this research is to (1) develop an integrated framework and methodology to aid robust selection of product designs, either a single product or a product line, taking into account the uncertainties in measuring customer preferences, uncertainties due to changing preferences over time, uncertainties in competitive reactions, and uncertainty in uncontrollable engineering design parameters, and based on this framework (2) construct and validate a prototype decision support system. In the proposed approach, the product/product-line design selection is viewed as a selection with two main stages: design alternative generation and design alternative evaluation. In the first stage (design module), commonality information, along with uncertainty in the engineering design formulation, is fed into a multi-objective robust optimization to generate a Pareto robust optimal set of design alternatives. In the second stage (market module), demand and market share estimates are generated for each alternative in the set by accounting for customer preferences and choices. Based on the demand function and commonality, cost functions are calculated for each generated design alternative and are used to compute the net present value of profit for each alternative. A recursive process between the two modules will be undertaken to account for the uncertainty in uncontrollable parameters in both modules using simulation methods and to obtain a robust set of recommendations. If successful, the outcome of this research will advance the state of the art across different domains in engineering design, marketing science and management. The results of this investigation will be broadly disseminated in the engineering design automation and marketing science communities, the knowledge integrated into courses at the University of Maryland, and the technology and techniques transferred to industry. The proposed research will also provide opportunities for students to learn business and engineering practices involved in product design selection and ways to enhance the effectiveness of such practices through basic research.