Investigation of Sea Level Rise in the Arctic Ocean

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole MA

Investigators

Abstract

0136432 Proshutinsky The sea level rise in the Arctic anticipated to result from global warming is important because of the influence that sea level changes will exert on shoreline erosion, sediment transport, navigation conditions, and oil and gas operations. This research will attempt to describe and model the current rate of sea level rise in the Arctic Ocean. Sea level is a natural integrating indicator of climate change, reflecting changes in practically all dynamic and thermodynamic terrestrial, oceanic, atmospheric, and cryospheric processes. However, using estimates of eustatic sea level rise as an indicator of climate change incurs the difficulty that sea level change is the net result of many components, some of which can offset one another. This effort will identify the role of each of the factors that contribute to Arctic Ocean sea level change. Based on analysis of existing, but previously unavailable, time series of sea level heights from Russian archives, along with atmospheric, cryospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic data sets and results of numerical modeling and data reconstruction, we will (1) identify links among sea level variability and atmospheric, hydrologic, cryospheric and oceanic processes, (2) quantify the regional and temporal variability of relevant processes in terms of sea level response, and (3) determine the relative importance of each factor influencing sea level change under global warming conditions. The observed sea level variability, which acts to integrate the complex contributions of these factors, will serve as the primary indicator of the ocean's response to climate change. Based on this analysis, the impact of linkages between hydrography, atmospheric circulation, hydrologic conditions, and the sea ice regime over the Arctic Ocean will be assessed in a conceptual model of sea level change. This project is an international effort with a research team of scientists from the USA, United Kingdom, and Norway. The proposed research and results of this project will have direct influence on several US National Science Foundation and European programs and regional climatic impact assessments.