Understanding and Improving Protective Decision Making

Columbia University, New York NY

Investigators

Abstract

Seismologists have predicted that a severe earthquake in the Istanbul region is highly likely in the next 30 years. This forecast has drawn much attention in the media and raises challenges as to how potential losses may be reduced by protective measures. Decisions made by private individuals, by officials, and by engineers and builders are all relevant to this question. The principles underlying protective decision making need to be better understood, for the sake of this and many other applications. We investigate how people determine whether to purchase insurance and/or invest in loss-reduction measures against risks from fire, theft, accidents or natural disasters. We examine the effects of different ways in which risks can be communicated and different frames in which information and choices can be presented; we also examine how protective decisions are affected by instructional modules that aid understanding of probability and that suggest useful general strategies for framing decisions. To estimate these effects, controlled laboratory experiments, field surveys and interviews will be conducted both in the United States and in Turkey.