Biodiversity and Ecosystem Informatics - BDEI -Computation and Uncertainty in Ecological Forecasting

Duke University, Durham NC

Investigators

Abstract

EIA-0131905 -James Clark-Duke University-BDEI: Computation and Uncertainty in Ecological Forecasting. Planning for global change and decision making will be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem change. A recent initiative by the Ecological Society of America identifies three challenges that must be met for forecasts to be successful: 1) computational approaches (algorithm development and data structures) that would permit simulation of complex systems, 2) feasible methods to track statistical uncertainty, and 3) data inadequacy. The project "BDEI: Computation and uncertainty in ecological forecasting" is an incubation that addresses these three challenges with an integrated approach. We propose to develop new computational and statistical techniques that will provide the capacity to forecast at broader spatial and temporal extents than possible with current approaches. The success of the proposed techniques will be evaluated using the data gathered from field experiments. A team of three researchers-an ecologist (Clark), a computer scientist (Agarwal), and a statistician (Lavine)- propose a working group for Fall and Spring 2002 that will focus on forecasting forest compositional change. The working group will integrate new computational techniques into stand simulators and use models to estimate uncertainty. The working group will develop an agenda for a broad initiative in ecological forecasting as basis for future proposals.