Interactive Ensembles: A New Strategy for Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Predictability Research

Institute Of Global Environment And Society, Rockville MD

Investigators

Abstract

This project will test a new idea related to the prediction of seasonal to interannual climate using coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AGCM and OGCM, respectively). The methodology builds on the notion that ensembles of AGCM realizations (probabilistic predictions) can be used to reduce the model "noise" or non-meaningful signal in the predicted fields, and isolate and improve the climate signal at the air-sea interface. The multiple realizations, or solutions, of a particular AGCM, or multiple realizations from different AGCMs, will be coupled to a single OGCM and the ensemble mean atmospheric fluxes will be used to drive the ocean model and make the coupled climate probabilistic predictions. If successful, this project could significantly improve climate predictions at extended range to interannual time scales.