Dissertation Research: Ecotone Dynamics and Landscape Response to Climate Change

Duke University, Durham NC

Investigators

Abstract

Proposal: DEB-0105068 PI: Dean Urban & Todd Lookingbill Title: Dissertation Research: Ecotone Dynamics and Landscape Response to Climate Change Attempts to predict ecological response to global climate change must start with a comprehensive understanding of factors influencing current spatial patterns of vegetation. The proposed research examines the relationship between patterns of vegetation in old-growth forest and environmental factors likely to change under scenarios of global warming. Previous analyses have shown the need for better landscape-level estimates of fundamental environmental properties. Consequently, fine-grain measurements of temperature and moisture will be collected across an experimental watershed in the Western Cascades to address this critical need. An additional sampling effort will focus on an active area of community transition, because shifts in these transitions have been highlighted as potential early warning signs of climate change. This research will examine how temperature and moisture influence the transition from forest dominated by Tsuga heterophylla to forest dominated by Abies amabilis. Simulation models based on generated data will facilitate synthesis and identify areas of potential climatic sensitivity.