Stress Transfer and Accelerating Seismicity Before Large Earthquakes

Csu Fullerton Auxiliary Services Corporation, Fullerton CA

Investigators

Abstract

Abstract for proposal EAR 0107129 (PH # 6x) Title: Stress Transfer and Accelerating Seismicity Before Large Earthquakes PI's: David Bowman, California State University-Fullerton, and Charles Sammis, University of Southern California In recent years, observational and theoretical descriptions of spatio-temporal patterns of seismicity have focused on two fundamental (and controversial) observations: static stress (Coulomb) interactions between earthquakes and accelerating seismic moment release before large earthquakes. We have previously shown that simple stress change calculations can be used to define a region of accelerating seismicity before large earthquakes in California. In this project, we have three main goals: 1) To test the "false-alarm rate" of our method using seismicity in California, 2) To test the stability of our methodology in other seismically active regions worldwide, and 3) To develop a geologically realistic numerical model of a spatially-extended fault network that produces accelerating seismicity before large events. The goal of our project is to advance our understanding of fault interactions and ultimately to develop a method of monitoring the earthquake hazard in seismically active regions.