Empirical Climate Prediction

Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO

Investigators

Abstract

The PI will examine extended range seasonal prediction with emphasis on seasonal tropical cyclone activity. He will study four areas: extended-range forecasting of total incidence and US landfalling of tropical cyclones, extended-range forecasting of intraseasonal (month-to-month) tropical cyclone variability, expanded analysis of the nature and role of stratospheric QBO-linked modulation of tropical weather and tropical cyclone activity, and analysis of the role of SST anomalies in the northeast Pacific (West and South of Mexico and Central America) in relation to seasonal trends in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. This research is important because it may lead to improved predictions on storms and hurricanes. This may lead to an improvement in mitigating the effects of such extreme events both in terms of human lives and the economy.