Sensitivity of Decadal Variability in ENSO to Noise Structure and Dynamical Regime

Texas A&M Research Foundation, College Station TX

Investigators

Abstract

The underlying mechanisms that cause low-frequency fluctuations in the skill of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts are not fully understood. The PIs will conduct a detailed investigation of the hypothesis that internal variability of the atmosphere acts as a stochastic forcing on the coupled system, and gives rise to decadal modulations of ENSO. They will perform long-term perfect-model scenario forecast experiments, using an intermediate coupled model, forced with a variety of noise realizations in a range of dynamical regimes. The work is important because it will increase understanding of the ENSO system. Improved ability to predict ENSO has major societal benefits.