Extratropical Linkages to Tropical Cyclone Activity

Florida State University, Tallahassee FL

Investigators

Abstract

The research will increase knowledge of tropical cyclone activity by systematically investigating high latitude linkages to tropical cyclone and hurricane activity. The goals are (i) to identify and predict the most important components of US interannual hurricane variability; and (ii) to describe and predict annual to decadal variability of US hurricane landfall probabilities conditioned on climate anomalies. A new dynamic probability model will be used to answer 'what if' questions concerning the regional likelihood of hurricanes conditioned on large-scale climate anomalies. The method of empirical orthogonal teleconnections will be modified to describe and predict the dominant covariability patterns of hurricanes along the US coastline. Factor analysis and change-point models will also be used. The PI and his group have made several breakthroughs in understanding hurricane and typhoon activity as it relates to climate. The essential theme has been that space-time variability in tropical cyclone activity is related to climate processes operating both within and outside the Tropics. The work is important because the perspective that extratropical climate anomalies play an important role in modulating tropical cyclone activity is new, and has the potential to significantly alter understanding of global climate processes.