POWRE: Hurricane Risk Modeling and Forecasting

Cornell University, Ithaca NY

Investigators

Abstract

0074686 Davidson The PI has several years experience in earthquake risk analysis. This POWRE award will allow her to expand her research to include hurricane risk analysis as well, with the goal of ultimately adopting a multihazard approach to risk assessment and management. This project will give the PI the skills, background, and connections necessary to make this transition. The study has two main goals. First, the PI will gain expertise and forge relationships in a new research area, hurricane risk analysis, with the support of experts in the field, Dr. David Rosowsky, Dr. Lian Xie, and their research colleagues at the Clemson University Civil Engineering Department and the North Carolina State University Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences Department, respectively. As consultants on this project, Rosowsky and Xie each will host the PI and her research assistant for a two-week visit. Second, more specifically, participation in this study will prepare the PI to conduct a planned collaborative project with Rosowsky and Xie to forecast hurricane risk as it changes over time. As cities grow, age, and evolve, their exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards changes dramatically. Risk assessors and managers, therefore, will always be a step behind the problem unless they anticipate how the world will change, estimate what the risk will be at that time in the future when the next hurricane occurs, and plan for that future scenario. The planned forecasting study will develop a model of how hurricane risk changes over time so that risk managers can plan more effectively. These two goals will be achieved through the accomplishment of the specific objectives of the POWRE project. First, the PI will work with the consultants to develop a deep understanding of the hurricane wind hazard model Rosowsky has developed and the coastal flooding hazard model Xie has developed. Second, the PI will develop vulnerability models that predict damage due to hurricane winds and coastal flooding. Third, interfaces between the Clemson wind model, NCSU coastal flooding model, and vulnerability models will be developed so that together they form a prototype risk assessment system. Finally, the hazard and vulnerability models will be applied to the coast of North Carolina to test the interfaces and demonstrate the feasibility of the prototype risk assessment system. ***