Biocomplexity Incubation Activity: Workshops on Prediction of the Ecological and Societal Impacts of Environmental Arctic Change

University Of Washington, Seattle WA

Investigators

Abstract

Over the last several decades, the Arctic has experienced unprecedented climate change, with dramatic reduction in sea-ice coverage and the warming of both lands and oceans. The driving forces for these changes are currently believed to be greenhouse warming and cyclic oscillations in the atmospheric circulation. Ecosystem structure in the more-southerly Bering Sea has been dramatically altered and a few scattered observations suggests that alterations in food-webs are occurring elsewhere in the more isolated Arctic. Few comprehensive studies of the ecosystem structure and function have been done in the enclosed Arctic, yet it is straightforward to expect dramatic and non-linear biotic changes. In this Incubation Activity, the P.I. proposes to develop a research plan for studying Arctic environmental change and its impact on the ecosystem and society. This proposal would establish a multidisciplinary team of experts which would lead 2 workshops over 24 months to develop a strategy for evaluating biological and societal impacts of the physical environmental changes.