LTER Cross-Site: Models as Tools for Synthesis of the Effects of Hurricanes on Temperate and Tropical Forests

Cary Institute Of Ecosystem Studies, Inc., Millbrook NY

Investigators

Abstract

0087214 Canham Hurricanes represent the dominant natural disturbance in both temperate forests of northeastern North America and the tropical forests of the Caribbean islands. A series of devastating hurricanes in the Caribbean in the past two decades has stimulated an enormous amount of research on the effects of wind disturbance on tropical forests. One of the most consistent lessons has been that the responses of tropical forests can be astonishingly swift, with recovery occurring on time scales of years or less. This suggests that hurricanes represent far less of a perturbation to tropical forests than to temperate forests. Despite the extensive body of literature generated in the wake of these storms, the relative importance of hurricanes for the structure and dynamics of tropical versus temperate forests is open to debate. The most general objective of the proposed LTER cross-site research is to follow up on a project initiated under SGER funding to develop a SORTIE model for forest dynamics following hurricane disturbance in the Caribbean, and to use the resulting model from that funding to address a broad suite of hypotheses on the effects of hurricane disturbance regimes on species diversity, community dynamics, and ecosystem structure in temperate and tropical forests. Given the likelihood that climate change will alter future patterns of hurricane frequency and intensity, this research is not as interested in documenting the effects of past storms as exploring the consequences of a broad range of variation in future storm severity and frequency. This research will take advantage of the wealth of empirical research on the ecological effects of hurricanes at two LTER sites. As in previous research with SORTIE, the basic approach will be to tightly link field studies and new methods of data analysis with model development. The proposed model will have five basic sub-models. Each of the five sub-models will be tightly linked to new empirical research or new analyses of existing LTER datasets to provide the necessary parameter values. Besides providing an integrated platform for comparison of disturbance dynamics in temperate versus tropical forests, experience suggests that the new model will play a significant role in guiding new empirical research at each of these sites.