An Empirical Assessment of the Influences of Social Class Isolation and Racial Residential Segregation on Trajectories of Change in Rates of African-American Homicide Offending

Temple University, Philadelphia PA

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Abstract

Combining information from the 1970, 1980, and 1990 censuses of the population with African-American homicide offending data in the United States for the period 1976-1994, this research examines, empirically, the relative efficacy of two powerful explanatory schemes: One proposed by Wilson suggesting that the most important determinant of the relationship between race and crime is the concentration of African-Americans in structurally disorganized communities. The competing theory, proposed by Massey et al., argues that the interaction of racial residential segregation and poverty is more relevant in causing accelerating rates of African-American homicide and victimization. The analytic method for the research is hierarchical linear growth curve analysis. Data on rates of African-American homicide offending will be nested within counties over the period 1976-1994. The Level-1 model estimates the changes in African-American homicide offending rates within each county, over time. The parameters of these trajectories (the intercept, slope, and acceleration of the trend lines) describe the nature of change in the homicide offending rates. The Level-2 model estimates differences between counties in these trends. The importance of the research lies in the promise of increased understanding of the forces that foster urban violence, the leading cause of death among young black males.