ITR: Technology for Information Aggregation Mechanisms: The Rapid Collection and Aggregation of "Soft" Information Distributed Across Remotely Located Individuals and Groups

California Institute Of Technology, Pasadena CA

Investigators

Abstract

Considerable information is known to exist in the form of "soft" information such as the hunches, opinions, beliefs and expectations distributed across many individuals. When individuals are differentially located in time and space and receive signals in the form of complex patterns from a common source, such information can aggregate into a reliable statistic. Tools for extracting such information, called Information Aggregation Mechanisms (IAMs), have evolved naturally but the scientific foundation for their successes has not been explored. IAMs involve subtleties because they depend upon incentives and the ability of individuals to update their opinions/beliefs by observing others. Through the application of new laboratory experimental methods, this research will isolate the principles that lead to the successes. Then, using the behavioral principles together with modern communications and computational technology, the research will produce new types of IAMs unlike any that are found occurring naturally. Potential applications range widely across almost any complex system in which the need for information is continuous or reoccurring, the state is not clearly observed from any single vantage point and observation requires human interpretation. Presumably, this would include anything ranging from epidemics, pending systems failures, the outcome of complex decision processes in an organization, or social tendencies.