Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Intervention, Capabilities, Costs, and the Outcome of Civil Wars

William Marsh Rice University, Houston TX

Investigators

Abstract

This project investigates the outcome of civil wars: under what conditions do the parties to a civil war choose to end the war by negotiation, and who prevails when negotiations fail. The researcher develops a formal model that holds war termination to be the outcome of rational choices that both sides make by comparing their expected utility from fighting and from negotiation -- including the risk that one's opponent may renege on an agreement. Changes in the military balance, the level of costs suffered by each side, and the level of external intervention determine how a civil war ends. Hypotheses are derived from this game-theoretic model by using a computer program written by the researcher that generates approximate solutions to the game. After further refinement of this formal model, these hypotheses are tested using data from all civil wars fought and terminated from 1816 to 1997. Further research and coding are necessary to measure the military balance and relative casualty levels and final war outcome for some of these wars. In addition to increasing significantly our understanding of how civil wars end, the project provides a common data resource with which others may develop and test theories.