Space Weather: Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejection from Vector Magnetograms

University Of Alabama In Huntsville, Huntsville AL

Investigators

Abstract

Abstract: ATM 00-01266 Proposal Title: Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms Principal Investigator: David Falconer, University of Alabama in Huntsville The investigator will develop quantitative measures of the global non-potentiality of solar active regions in order to predict generation of flare-associated coronal mass ejections (CMS) by these active regions. The main effort is to expand the results of a promising pilot study of four active regions to a statistical meaningful sample of 30-40 active regions. In the pilot study, two new measures of non-potentiality were developed (global net current flow and length of the main neutral line) and found to be correlated with each other and with the overall non-potentiality of the active regions. In addition, two cases in which these parameters were unusually large produced CME. The expanded study will: (1) Test the tentative conclusions of the pilot study. (2) Search for other correlations. (3) Investigate the relationship of the new measures to the previously observed sigmoidal structures. (4) Develop techniques to apply the new measures to operational forecasting.