Ecological Forecasting: An Emerging Imperative Workshop to be held at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Spring 2000

Ecological Society Of America, Washington DC

Investigators

Abstract

0074705 Clark Ecological forecasting is the process of predicting the state of ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural capital, with fully specified uncertainties, contingent on explicit scenarios for climate, land use, human population, technologies and economic activity. The spatial extents of forecasts range form watersheds to regions to continents to the globe. The time horizons of the forecasts are typically 10 to 50 years. Projection and forecasting involve predicting future ecosystem states based on past activity and models that incorporate our understanding of relationships. Planning and decision making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Emerging computing capacities together with broad-scale ecosystem studies will soon make it possible to predict, validate and test many aspects of environmental change. A workshop will be held in May 2000 at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis to develop a science agenda for Ecological Forecasting. Presentations from economists, climatologists, demographers, and managers will address cross-cutting issues involved in making forecasts. A series of case study presentations will involve both ecologists and scientists form related disciplines to assess the readiness of ecological science to make forecasts. Subsequent discussions will focus on social and physical drivers of ecological forecasts, basic research needs, quantifying uncertainty/decision theory, and communicating forecasts to the users. The workshop will produce a white paper, an overview article and a book.