Intervention Strategies and the Outcome of Intrastate Conflicts

Suny At Binghamton, Binghamton NY

Investigators

Abstract

This project will build on earlier work that explores the relationship between outside interventions and the secession of hostilities. Specifically my research proposal will address the following: 1) the expected duration of a conflict with and without outside interventions; 2) an examination of the relationship between strategy and outcome, specifically the effectiveness of the "carrot and stick" approach to intervening, by examining the interplay of punishments and rewards, and the relative effectiveness of gradual interventions versus large, episodic ones (the former is epitomized by Nicaragua or El Salvador; the latter by Somalia); 3) the conditions under which states substitute military, economic, and diplomatic initiatives in their attempts to influence the course of internal conflicts. Beyond these specific objectives the project will contribute to our understanding of when and how states choose across a range of potential policy options, the role of selection mechanisms in evaluating outcomes, and policy evaluation more generally. This project will add to the current state of our knowledge of intervention effectiveness, as well as making available to the social science community a fairly refined data set on interventions in internal conflicts. Specifically I will address the following: Conceptual Refinements: Develop and test a more complex understanding of the role of intervention strategy on conflict outcomes Examine the effects of intervention substitution Incorporate diplomatic interventions as a compliment to or alternative for military or economic strategies Examine the effect of outside interventions on the duration of intrastate conflicts Data Refinements: Record intervention data in terms of size and speed of the intervention Sequentially order the unfolding strategy of intervention Update current intervention data from 1994 to the present The initial focus would be on the expected duration of the conflict in light of (or in spite of) an outside intervention. The interesting theoretical and policy question is whether interventions shorten or prolong the expected duration of a civil conflict. We would expect that when third parties intervene they anticipate that their effort will lead to shortening the conflict. This has never been sufficiently examined. The second stage of the analysis will examine the effect of different strategies for intervening on the success or failure of the policy. If states (or international organizations) use intervention strategies as a form of conflict management then knowing what works best is critical information. Currently this level of knowledge is rather meager. For example, we know very little about the conflict management implications of using a mixture of diplomacy and coercion in trying to get actors in civil conflicts to stop fighting. I will first test for the conditions under which third parties select into intervention strategies. Using a Heckman selection model I can test whether there is systematic variation in potential conditions that 'cause' an actor to choose to be in a specified category. This requires a two-stage estimation process, where a regression equation that would account for the success or failure of an intervention would be specified, along with a set of variable that should account for selection into the intervention. The first stage would estimate the likelihood that we would observe an intervention, given the set of specified conditions; the second stage would estimate the likelihood that an intervention would be successful. This research effort will produce two things of continuing value to the social science and policy communities. First, a series of journal articles will describe the data and present the results of the analyses. These analyses should have clear policy relevant implications, suggesting strategies for stopping intrastate conflicts that have the greatest chance of success. I anticipate that the project could culminate in a book-length manuscript that would have a dual audience consisting of policymakers and scholars. Second, as a result of the labor-intensive data generation effort we will have a data set on interventions in civil conflicts that will be highly desired and broadly applicable. I will make these data publicly available via my web site and/or depositing them with ICPSR.