Spatial Science Approaches to Enhance Gun Violence Surveillance and RelatedDeterminants

Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore MD

Investigators

Abstract

Project Summary/Abstract Gun violence in the United States continues to be a persistent and growing public health threat with over 100 fatalities per day. Furthermore, gun violence is most pervasive in disadvantaged neighborhoods characterized by disparities in race/ethnicity, poverty, educational attainment, among many other social determinants of health (SDoH). The SDoH are highly dependent on where individuals live, work, and recreate. Therefore, the inherent nexus between health and place should be explicitly considered when identifying, quantifying, and discussing gun violence, which is one of the main contributions of this proposed project. My long-term career goal is to become a leading interdisciplinary researcher in firearm injury and mortality prevention, investigating the spatial, human behavioral, social, and environmental determinants of firearm risk and mortality. My K18 proposal includes a career development plan and training activities that will expand my current expertise in spatial science with advanced training in gun violence and health policy to complement my growing experience in these domains. My mentoring team possess the expertise and interdisciplinary experience necessary to facilitate my training goals and transition to an independent investigator in the intersection of gun violence and spatial science. My proposed research, which leverages publicly available criminology, Census, and SDoH variables, will (1) develop an analytical approach to detect emerging spatial-temporal clusters of gun violence incidents at the neighborhood and weekly levels in Washington, D.C.; (2) develop a spatial-temporal regression model to examine the impact of the social determinants of health (SDoH) and other place-based factors on gun violence risk; and (3) examine potential spatial-temporal associations between gun violence incidents and alcohol outlet access and hours of operation. Aim 1 hypothesizes that I will detect anomalous clusters of gun violence events throughout the study area and period after adjusting for related covariates and baseline conditions. Aim 2 hypothesizes that (a) various disparities among the SDoH are strongly associated with gun violence risk and (b) neighborhoods near high-risk areas will exhibit a spatial spillover effect. Aim 3 hypothesizes that (a) high-risk areas of gun violence incidents can partly be explained by alcohol outlet access and (b) outlets with longer and later operating hours significantly increase gun violence risk. The outcomes and frameworks from this research on gun violence and its spatial and temporal determinants will inform other research across the United States, inform policymakers, and provide the foundation for larger funded project applications (e.g., R01). Overall, this project can improve our understanding of the SDoH, segregation, spatial and temporal interaction, and relationships with other factors that are necessary to improve violence reduction programs and policy. My mentoring team and I will leverage connections with programs and officials in Washington, D.C. to facilitate the dissemination of key results and improved gun violence surveillance tools.