Climate, Population Health, and Well-being over Time

Univ Of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill NC

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Abstract

? DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project investigates how short- to medium-term climate variability affects population well-being and migration across a wide spectrum of development and urbanization. The project focuses on China over a period of rapid transformation (1989-2014). Social data will be derived from two large-sample longitudinal household surveys that have measured health, economic status and population mobility across China during this time period. These social data will be linked to high-resolution gridded climate data in order to measure population exposure to precipitation and temperature over 1-24 month time scales. Multivariate regression models will then be used to measure the effects of climate variability on well-being and migration while accounting for nonlinear relationships and a variety of potential spatial and temporal confounders. These analyses will be extended to reveal which populations are most vulnerable to these effects, and whether these effects have increased or decreased over time and with urbanization. This research will represent an important advance in the measurement of climate vulnerability, and will contribute directly to the global conversation about vulnerability to future climate change.